Student Grades Prediction Model

Student Grades Prediction Model

Problem Statement: -

Universities are very prestigious places to access higher education. But the amount of fees universities charge today never equals the support they give to students. Some students need a lot of attention from instructors because if special attention will not be given to those students who are not getting good grades, it could be detrimental to their emotional state and their career in the long run.

By using machine learning algorithms, we can predict how well the students are going to perform so that we can help the students whose grades are predicted low.

The goal of this challenge is to build a machine learning model for Sudent Grades Prediction is based on the problem of regression in machine learning.

Dataset: -

The dataset is downloaded from UCI Machine Learning Repository.

Attribute Information:

~ school
~ sex
~ age
~ famsize
~ Pstatus
~ Medu
~ Fedu
~ Mjob
~ Fjob
~ reason
~ guardian
~ traveltime
~ studytime
~ failures
~ schoolsup
~ famsup
~ paid
~ activities
~ nursery
~ higher
~ internet
~ romantic
~ famrel
~ freetime
~ goout
~ Dalc
~ Walc
~ health
~ absences
~ G1
~ G2
~ G3

The project is simple yet challenging as it is has very limited features & samples.

Step 1: Import all the required libraries

  • Pandas : In computer programming, pandas is a software library written for the Python programming language for data manipulation and analysis and storing in a proper way. In particular, it offers data structures and operations for manipulating numerical tables and time series

  • Sklearn : Scikit-learn (formerly scikits.learn) is a free software machine learning library for the Python programming language. It features various classification, regression and clustering algorithms including support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting, k-means and DBSCAN, and is designed to interoperate with the Python numerical and scientific libraries NumPy and SciPy. The library is built upon the SciPy (Scientific Python) that must be installed before you can use scikit-learn.

  • Pickle : Python pickle module is used for serializing and de-serializing a Python object structure. Pickling is a way to convert a python object (list, dict, etc.) into a character stream. The idea is that this character stream contains all the information necessary to reconstruct the object in another python script.

  • Seaborn : Seaborn is a Python data visualization library based on matplotlib. It provides a high-level interface for drawing attractive and informative statistical graphics.

  • Matplotlib : Matplotlib is a plotting library for the Python programming language and its numerical mathematics extension NumPy. It provides an object-oriented API for embedding plots into applications using general-purpose GUI toolkits like Tkinter, wxPython, Qt, or GTK.

#Loading libraries   
import pandas as pd  
import seaborn as sns  
import pickle  
import numpy as np  
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt  
import plotly.express as px  
from sklearn.metrics import r2_score  
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression, Ridge, RidgeCV, Lasso, LassoCV  
from sklearn.model_selection import KFold, cross_val_score, train_test_split  
import warnings  

warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')

Step 2 : Read dataset and basic details of dataset

Goal:- In this step we are going to read the dataset, view the dataset and analysis the basic details like total number of rows and columns, what are the column data types and see to need to create new column or not.

In this stage we are going to read our problem dataset and have a look on it.

#loading the dataset  
try:  
    df = pd.read_csv('student-mat.csv') #Path for the file  
    print('Data read done successfully...')  
except (FileNotFoundError, IOError):  
    print("Wrong file or file path")
Data read done successfully...
# To view the content inside the dataset we can use the head() method returns a specified number of rows, string from the top.   
# The head() method returns the first 5 rows if a number is not specified.  
df.head()

png

df = df.drop(labels='address', axis=1)  
df = df.drop(labels='romantic', axis=1)

Data Preprocessing

Now before moving forward, let’s have a look at whether this dataset contains any null values or not.

print(df.isnull().sum())
school        0  
sex           0  
age           0  
famsize       0  
Pstatus       0  
Medu          0  
Fedu          0  
Mjob          0  
Fjob          0  
reason        0  
guardian      0  
traveltime    0  
studytime     0  
failures      0  
schoolsup     0  
famsup        0  
paid          0  
activities    0  
nursery       0  
higher        0  
internet      0  
famrel        0  
freetime      0  
goout         0  
Dalc          0  
Walc          0  
health        0  
absences      0  
G1            0  
G2            0  
G3            0  
dtype: int64

As we observed, the data is ready to use because there are no null values in the data. There is a column in the data containing information about the number of courses students have chosen. Let’s look at the number of values of all values of this column:

The df.value_counts() method counts the number of types of values a particular column contains.

df.shape
(395, 31)

The df.shape method shows the shape of the dataset.

df.info()
<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>  
RangeIndex: 395 entries, 0 to 394  
Data columns (total 31 columns):  
 #   Column      Non-Null Count  Dtype   
---  ------      --------------  -----   
 0   school      395 non-null    object  
 1   sex         395 non-null    object  
 2   age         395 non-null    int64   
 3   famsize     395 non-null    object  
 4   Pstatus     395 non-null    object  
 5   Medu        395 non-null    int64   
 6   Fedu        395 non-null    int64   
 7   Mjob        395 non-null    object  
 8   Fjob        395 non-null    object  
 9   reason      395 non-null    object  
 10  guardian    395 non-null    object  
 11  traveltime  395 non-null    int64   
 12  studytime   395 non-null    int64   
 13  failures    395 non-null    int64   
 14  schoolsup   395 non-null    object  
 15  famsup      395 non-null    object  
 16  paid        395 non-null    object  
 17  activities  395 non-null    object  
 18  nursery     395 non-null    object  
 19  higher      395 non-null    object  
 20  internet    395 non-null    object  
 21  famrel      395 non-null    int64   
 22  freetime    395 non-null    int64   
 23  goout       395 non-null    int64   
 24  Dalc        395 non-null    int64   
 25  Walc        395 non-null    int64   
 26  health      395 non-null    int64   
 27  absences    395 non-null    int64   
 28  G1          395 non-null    int64   
 29  G2          395 non-null    int64   
 30  G3          395 non-null    int64   
dtypes: int64(16), object(15)  
memory usage: 95.8+ KB

The df.info() method prints information about a DataFrame including the index dtype and columns, non-null values and memory usage.

df.iloc[1]
school             GP  
sex                 F  
age                17  
famsize           GT3  
Pstatus             T  
Medu                1  
Fedu                1  
Mjob          at_home  
Fjob            other  
reason         course  
guardian       father  
traveltime          1  
studytime           2  
failures            0  
schoolsup          no  
famsup            yes  
paid               no  
activities         no  
nursery            no  
higher            yes  
internet          yes  
famrel              5  
freetime            3  
goout               3  
Dalc                1  
Walc                1  
health              3  
absences            4  
G1                  5  
G2                  5  
G3                  6  
Name: 1, dtype: object

df.iloc[ ] is primarily integer position based (from 0 to length-1 of the axis), but may also be used with a boolean array. The iloc property gets, or sets, the value(s) of the specified indexes.

Data Type Check for every column.

objects_cols = ['object']  
objects_lst = list(df.select_dtypes(include=objects_cols).columns)
print("Total number of cateogrical columns are ", len(objects_lst))  
print("There names are as follows: ", objects_lst)
Total number of cateogrical columns are  15  
There names are as follows:  ['school', 'sex', 'famsize', 'Pstatus', 'Mjob', 'Fjob', 'reason', 'guardian', 'schoolsup', 'famsup', 'paid', 'activities', 'nursery', 'higher', 'internet']
int64_cols = ['int64']  
int64_lst = list(df.select_dtypes(include=int64_cols).columns)
print("Total number of numerical columns are ", len(int64_lst))  
print("There names are as follows: ", int64_lst)
Total number of numerical columns are  16  
There names are as follows:  ['age', 'Medu', 'Fedu', 'traveltime', 'studytime', 'failures', 'famrel', 'freetime', 'goout', 'Dalc', 'Walc', 'health', 'absences', 'G1', 'G2', 'G3']
float64_cols = ['float64']  
float64_lst = list(df.select_dtypes(include=float64_cols).columns)
print("Total number of float64 columns are ", len(float64_lst))  
print("There name are as follow: ", float64_lst)
Total number of float64 columns are  0  
There name are as follow:  []
#count the total number of rows and columns.  
print ('The new dataset has {0} rows and {1} columns'.format(df.shape[0],df.shape[1]))
The new dataset has 395 rows and 31 columns

Step 3: Descriptive Analysis

Goal/Purpose: Finding the data distribution of the features. Visualization, it helps to understand data and also to explain the data to another person.

Things we are going to do in this step:

  1. Mean

  2. Median

  3. Mode

  4. Standard Deviation

  5. Variance

  6. Null Values

  7. NaN Values

  8. Min value

  9. Max value

  10. Count Value

  11. Quatilers

  12. Correlation

  13. Skewness

df.describe()

png

The df.describe() method returns description of the data in the DataFrame. If the DataFrame contains numerical data, the description contains these information for each column: count — The number of not-empty values. mean — The average (mean) value.

Measure the variability of data of the dataset

Variability describes how far apart data points lie from each other and from the center of a distribution.

1. Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is the average amount of variability in your dataset.

It tells you, on average, how far each data point lies from the mean. The larger the standard deviation, the more variable the data set is and if zero variance then there is no variability in the dataset that means there no use of that dataset.

df.std()
age           1.276043  
Medu          1.094735  
Fedu          1.088201  
traveltime    0.697505  
studytime     0.839240  
failures      0.743651  
famrel        0.896659  
freetime      0.998862  
goout         1.113278  
Dalc          0.890741  
Walc          1.287897  
health        1.390303  
absences      8.003096  
G1            3.319195  
G2            3.761505  
G3            4.581443  
dtype: float64

We can also understand the standard deviation using the below function.

def std_cal(df,float64_lst):  

    cols = ['normal_value', 'zero_value']  
    zero_value = 0  
    normal_value = 0  

    for value in float64_lst:  

        rs = round(df[value].std(),6)  

        if rs > 0:  
            normal_value = normal_value + 1  

        elif rs == 0:  
            zero_value = zero_value + 1  

    std_total_df =  pd.DataFrame([[normal_value, zero_value]], columns=cols)   

    return std_total_df
std_cal(df, float64_lst)

png

int64_cols = ['int64']  
int64_lst = list(df.select_dtypes(include=int64_cols).columns)  
std_cal(df,int64_lst)

png

2. Variance

The variance is the average of squared deviations from the mean. A deviation from the mean is how far a score lies from the mean.

Variance is the square of the standard deviation. This means that the units of variance are much larger than those of a typical value of a data set.

df.var()
age            1.628285  
Medu           1.198445  
Fedu           1.184180  
traveltime     0.486513  
studytime      0.704324  
failures       0.553017  
famrel         0.803997  
freetime       0.997725  
goout          1.239388  
Dalc           0.793420  
Walc           1.658678  
health         1.932944  
absences      64.049541  
G1            11.017053  
G2            14.148917  
G3            20.989616  
dtype: float64

We can also understand the Variance using the below function.

zero_cols = []  

def var_cal(df,float64_lst):  

    cols = ['normal_value', 'zero_value']  
    zero_value = 0  
    normal_value = 0  

    for value in float64_lst:  

        rs = round(df[value].var(),6)  

        if rs > 0:  
            normal_value = normal_value + 1  

        elif rs == 0:  
            zero_value = zero_value + 1  
            zero_cols.append(value)  

    var_total_df =  pd.DataFrame([[normal_value, zero_value]], columns=cols)   

    return var_total_df
var_cal(df, float64_lst)

png

var_cal(df, int64_lst)

png

Measure central tendency

A measure of central tendency is a single value that attempts to describe a set of data by identifying the central position within that set of data. As such, measures of central tendency are sometimes called measures of central location. They are also classed as summary statistics.

1. Mean

The mean is the arithmetic average, and it is probably the measure of central tendency that you are most familiar.

df.mean()
age           16.696203  
Medu           2.749367  
Fedu           2.521519  
traveltime     1.448101  
studytime      2.035443  
failures       0.334177  
famrel         3.944304  
freetime       3.235443  
goout          3.108861  
Dalc           1.481013  
Walc           2.291139  
health         3.554430  
absences       5.708861  
G1            10.908861  
G2            10.713924  
G3            10.415190  
dtype: float64

We can also understand the mean using the below function.

def mean_cal(df,int64_lst):  

    cols = ['normal_value', 'zero_value']  
    zero_value = 0  
    normal_value = 0  

    for value in int64_lst:  

        rs = round(df[value].mean(),6)  

        if rs > 0:  
            normal_value = normal_value + 1  

        elif rs == 0:  
            zero_value = zero_value + 1  

    mean_total_df =  pd.DataFrame([[normal_value, zero_value]], columns=cols)   

    return mean_total_df
mean_cal(df, int64_lst)

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mean_cal(df,float64_lst)

png

2.Median

The median is the middle value. It is the value that splits the dataset in half.

df.median()
age           17.0  
Medu           3.0  
Fedu           2.0  
traveltime     1.0  
studytime      2.0  
failures       0.0  
famrel         4.0  
freetime       3.0  
goout          3.0  
Dalc           1.0  
Walc           2.0  
health         4.0  
absences       4.0  
G1            11.0  
G2            11.0  
G3            11.0  
dtype: float64

We can also understand the median using the below function.

def median_cal(df,int64_lst):  

    cols = ['normal_value', 'zero_value']  
    zero_value = 0  
    normal_value = 0  

    for value in float64_lst:  

        rs = round(df[value].mean(),6)  

        if rs > 0:  
            normal_value = normal_value + 1  

        elif rs == 0:  
            zero_value = zero_value + 1  

    median_total_df =  pd.DataFrame([[normal_value, zero_value]], columns=cols)   

    return median_total_df
median_cal(df, float64_lst)

png

3. Mode

The mode is the value that occurs the most frequently in your data set. On a bar chart, the mode is the highest bar. If the data have multiple values that are tied for occurring the most frequently, you have a multimodal distribution. If no value repeats, the data do not have a mode.

df.mode()

png

def mode_cal(df,int64_lst):  

    cols = ['normal_value', 'zero_value', 'string_value']  
    zero_value = 0  
    normal_value = 0  
    string_value = 0  

    for value in float64_lst:  

        rs = df[value].mode()[0]  

        if isinstance(rs, str):  
            string_value = string_value + 1  
        else:  

            if rs > 0:  
                normal_value = normal_value + 1  

            elif rs == 0:  
                zero_value = zero_value + 1  

    mode_total_df =  pd.DataFrame([[normal_value, zero_value, string_value]], columns=cols)   

    return mode_total_df
mode_cal(df, list(df.columns))

png

Null and Nan values

  1. Null Values
df.isnull().sum()
school        0  
sex           0  
age           0  
famsize       0  
Pstatus       0  
Medu          0  
Fedu          0  
Mjob          0  
Fjob          0  
reason        0  
guardian      0  
traveltime    0  
studytime     0  
failures      0  
schoolsup     0  
famsup        0  
paid          0  
activities    0  
nursery       0  
higher        0  
internet      0  
famrel        0  
freetime      0  
goout         0  
Dalc          0  
Walc          0  
health        0  
absences      0  
G1            0  
G2            0  
G3            0  
dtype: int64

As we notice that there are no null values in our dataset.

  1. Nan Values
df.isna().sum()
school        0  
sex           0  
age           0  
famsize       0  
Pstatus       0  
Medu          0  
Fedu          0  
Mjob          0  
Fjob          0  
reason        0  
guardian      0  
traveltime    0  
studytime     0  
failures      0  
schoolsup     0  
famsup        0  
paid          0  
activities    0  
nursery       0  
higher        0  
internet      0  
famrel        0  
freetime      0  
goout         0  
Dalc          0  
Walc          0  
health        0  
absences      0  
G1            0  
G2            0  
G3            0  
dtype: int64

As we notice that there are no nan values in our dataset.

Another way to remove null and nan values is to use the method “df.dropna(inplace=True)”.

Count of unique occurences of every value in all categorical value

for value in objects_lst:  

    print(f"{value:{10}} {df[value].value_counts()}")
school     GP    349  
MS     46  
Name: school, dtype: int64  
sex        F    208  
M    187  
Name: sex, dtype: int64  
famsize    GT3    281  
LE3    114  
Name: famsize, dtype: int64  
Pstatus    T    354  
A     41  
Name: Pstatus, dtype: int64  
Mjob       other       141  
services    103  
at_home      59  
teacher      58  
health       34  
Name: Mjob, dtype: int64  
Fjob       other       217  
services    111  
teacher      29  
at_home      20  
health       18  
Name: Fjob, dtype: int64  
reason     course        145  
home          109  
reputation    105  
other          36  
Name: reason, dtype: int64  
guardian   mother    273  
father     90  
other      32  
Name: guardian, dtype: int64  
schoolsup  no     344  
yes     51  
Name: schoolsup, dtype: int64  
famsup     yes    242  
no     153  
Name: famsup, dtype: int64  
paid       no     214  
yes    181  
Name: paid, dtype: int64  
activities yes    201  
no     194  
Name: activities, dtype: int64  
nursery    yes    314  
no      81  
Name: nursery, dtype: int64  
higher     yes    375  
no      20  
Name: higher, dtype: int64  
internet   yes    329  
no      66  
Name: internet, dtype: int64
df.head()

png

  • Categorical data are variables that contain label values rather than numeric values.The number of possible values is often limited to a fixed set.

  • We will use Label Encoder to label the categorical data. Label Encoder is the part of SciKit Learn library in Python and used to convert categorical data, or text data, into numbers, which our predictive models can better understand.

from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder  
le = LabelEncoder()  
df.school = le.fit_transform(df.school)  
df.sex = le.fit_transform(df.sex)  
df.age = le.fit_transform(df.age)  
df.famsize = le.fit_transform(df.famsize)  
df.Pstatus = le.fit_transform(df.Pstatus)  
df.Mjob = le.fit_transform(df.Mjob)  
df.Fjob = le.fit_transform(df.Fjob)  
df.reason = le.fit_transform(df.reason)  
df.guardian = le.fit_transform(df.guardian)  
df.schoolsup = le.fit_transform(df.schoolsup)  
df.famsup = le.fit_transform(df.famsup)  
df.paid = le.fit_transform(df.paid)  
df.activities = le.fit_transform(df.activities)  
df.nursery = le.fit_transform(df.nursery)  
df.higher = le.fit_transform(df.higher)  
df.internet = le.fit_transform(df.internet)

Skewness

Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry of a distribution. A distribution is asymmetrical when its left and right side are not mirror images. A distribution can have right (or positive), left (or negative), or zero skewness

Below is the function to calculate skewness.

def right_nor_left(df, int64_lst):  

    temp_skewness = ['column', 'skewness_value', 'skewness (+ve or -ve)']  
    temp_skewness_values  = []  

    temp_total = ["positive (+ve) skewed", "normal distrbution" , "negative (-ve) skewed"]  
    positive = 0  
    negative = 0  
    normal = 0  

    for value in float64_lst:  

        rs = round(df[value].skew(),4)  

        if rs > 0:  
            temp_skewness_values.append([value,rs , "positive (+ve) skewed"])     
            positive = positive + 1  

        elif rs == 0:  
            temp_skewness_values.append([value,rs,"normal distrbution"])  
            normal = normal + 1  

        elif rs < 0:  
            temp_skewness_values.append([value,rs, "negative (-ve) skewed"])  
            negative = negative + 1  

    skewness_df =  pd.DataFrame(temp_skewness_values, columns=temp_skewness)   
    skewness_total_df =  pd.DataFrame([[positive, normal, negative]], columns=temp_total)   

    return skewness_df, skewness_total_df
float64_cols = ['float64']  
float64_lst_col = list(df.select_dtypes(include=float64_cols).columns)  

skew_df,skew_total_df = right_nor_left(df, float64_lst_col)
skew_df

png

skew_total_df

png

Notice the above results.

Step 4: Data Exploration

Goal/Purpose:

Graphs we are going to develop in this step

  1. Histogram of all columns to check the distrubution of the columns

  2. Distplot or distribution plot of all columns to check the variation in the data distribution

  3. Heatmap to calculate correlation within feature variables

  4. Boxplot to find out outlier in the feature columns

1. Histogram

A histogram is a bar graph-like representation of data that buckets a range of classes into columns along the horizontal x-axis.The vertical y-axis represents the number count or percentage of occurrences in the data for each column

# Distribution in attributes  
%matplotlib inline  
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt  
df.hist(bins=20, figsize=(55,55))  
plt.show()

png

2. Distplot

A Distplot or distribution plot, depicts the variation in the data distribution. Seaborn Distplot represents the overall distribution of continuous data variables. The Seaborn module along with the Matplotlib module is used to depict the distplot with different variations in it

num = [f for f in df.columns if df.dtypes[f] != 'object']  
nd = pd.melt(df, value_vars = num)  
n1 = sns.FacetGrid (nd, col='variable', col_wrap=4, sharex=False, sharey = False)  
n1 = n1.map(sns.distplot, 'value')  
n1
<seaborn.axisgrid.FacetGrid at 0x2011a7013d0>

png

Above is the distrution bar graphs to confirm about statistics of the data about the skewness.

Let’s proceed and check the distribution of the target variable.

The target variable is positively skewed.

3. Heatmap

A heatmap (or heat map) is a graphical representation of data where values are depicted by color.Heatmaps make it easy to visualize complex data and understand it at a glance

Correlation — A positive correlation is a relationship between two variables in which both variables move in the same direction. Therefore, when one variable increases as the other variable increases, or one variable decreases while the other decreases.

Correlation can have a value:

  • 1 is a perfect positive correlation

  • 0 is no correlation (the values don’t seem linked at all)

  • -1 is a perfect negative correlation

#correlation plot  
sns.set(rc = {'figure.figsize':(500,500)})  
corr = df.corr().abs()  
sns.heatmap(corr,annot=True)   
plt.show()

png

corr

png

4. Boxplot

A boxplot is a standardized way of displaying the distribution of data based on a five number summary (“minimum”, first quartile [Q1], median, third quartile [Q3] and “maximum”).

features = ['school','sex','age','famsize','Pstatus','Medu','Fedu','Mjob','Fjob','reason','guardian','traveltime','studytime','failures','schoolsup','famsup','paid','activities','nursery','higher','internet','famrel','freetime','goout','Dalc','Walc','health','absences','G1','G2']
for value in features:  
    sns.catplot(data=df, x=value,  kind="box")

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#for target variable  
sns.catplot(data=df, x='G3', kind='box')
<seaborn.axisgrid.FacetGrid at 0x2011d7ab1f0>

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The dark points are known as Outliers. Outliers are those data points that are significantly different from the rest of the dataset. They are often abnormal observations that skew the data distribution, and arise due to inconsistent data entry, or erroneous observations.

NOTICED ~

  • Sometimes outliers may be errors in the data and should be removed. In this case these points are correct readings yet they are so different from the other points that they appear to be incorrect.

  • The best way to decide wether to remove them or not is to train models with and without these data points and- compare their validation accuracy.

  • So we gonna let is slide as it isn’t gonna be effect our model.

plt.bar(df['school'], df['G3'])  

plt.title("Bar Chart")  

# Setting the X and Y labels  
plt.xlabel('time_study')  
plt.ylabel('Marks')  

# Adding the legends  
plt.show()

png

It defines the relation between the school opted to total Grade by the student.

plt.bar(df['internet'], df['G3'])  

plt.title("Bar Chart")  

# Setting the X and Y labels  
plt.xlabel('number_courses')  
plt.ylabel('Marks')  

# Adding the legends  
plt.show()

png

It defines the relation between the students with internet access to grade scored by the student.

Step 2: Data Preparation

Goal:-

Tasks we are going to in this step:

  1. Now we gonna spearate the target variable and feature columns in two different dataframe and will check the shape of the dataset for validation purpose.

  2. Split dataset into train and test dataset.

  3. Scaling on train dataset.

1. Now we spearate the target variable and feature columns in two different dataframe and will check the shape of the dataset for validation purpose.

# Separate target and feature column in X and y variable  

target = 'G3'  

# X will be the features  
X = df.drop(target,axis=1)   
#y will be the target variable  
y = df[target]
X.info()
<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>  
RangeIndex: 395 entries, 0 to 394  
Data columns (total 30 columns):  
 #   Column      Non-Null Count  Dtype  
---  ------      --------------  -----  
 0   school      395 non-null    int64  
 1   sex         395 non-null    int64  
 2   age         395 non-null    int64  
 3   famsize     395 non-null    int64  
 4   Pstatus     395 non-null    int64  
 5   Medu        395 non-null    int64  
 6   Fedu        395 non-null    int64  
 7   Mjob        395 non-null    int64  
 8   Fjob        395 non-null    int64  
 9   reason      395 non-null    int64  
 10  guardian    395 non-null    int64  
 11  traveltime  395 non-null    int64  
 12  studytime   395 non-null    int64  
 13  failures    395 non-null    int64  
 14  schoolsup   395 non-null    int64  
 15  famsup      395 non-null    int64  
 16  paid        395 non-null    int64  
 17  activities  395 non-null    int64  
 18  nursery     395 non-null    int64  
 19  higher      395 non-null    int64  
 20  internet    395 non-null    int64  
 21  famrel      395 non-null    int64  
 22  freetime    395 non-null    int64  
 23  goout       395 non-null    int64  
 24  Dalc        395 non-null    int64  
 25  Walc        395 non-null    int64  
 26  health      395 non-null    int64  
 27  absences    395 non-null    int64  
 28  G1          395 non-null    int64  
 29  G2          395 non-null    int64  
dtypes: int64(30)  
memory usage: 92.7 KB
y
0       6  
1       6  
2      10  
3      15  
4      10  
       ..  
390     9  
391    16  
392     7  
393    10  
394     9  
Name: G3, Length: 395, dtype: int64
# Check the shape of X and y variable  
X.shape, y.shape
((395, 30), (395,))
# Reshape the y variable   
y = y.values.reshape(-1,1)
# Again check the shape of X and y variable  
X.shape, y.shape
((395, 30), (395, 1))

2. Spliting the dataset in training and testing data.

Here we are spliting our dataset into 80/20 percentage where 80% dataset goes into the training and 20% goes into testing the part.

# Split the X and y into X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test variables with 80-20% split.  
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)
# Check shape of the splitted variables  
X_train.shape, X_test.shape, y_train.shape, y_test.shape
((316, 30), (79, 30), (316, 1), (79, 1))

Step 3: Model Training

Goal:

In this step we are going to train our dataset on different regression algorithms. As we know that our target variable is in discrete format so we have to apply algorithm.**

Algorithms we are going to use in this step.

  1. LinearRegression

  2. LassoRegression

K-fold cross validation is a procedure used to estimate the skill of the model on new data. There are common tactics that you can use to select the value of k for your dataset. There are commonly used variations on cross-validation, such as stratified and repeated, that are available in scikit-learn

# Define kfold with 10 split  
cv = KFold(n_splits=10, shuffle=True, random_state=42)

The goal of cross-validation is to test the model’s ability to predict new data that was not used in estimating it, in order to flag problems like overfitting or selection bias and to give an insight on how the model will generalize to an independent dataset (i.e., an unknown dataset, for instance from a real problem).

1. Linear Regression

Linear regression analysis is used to predict the value of a variable based on the value of another variable. The variable you want to predict is called the dependent variable. The variable you are using to predict the other variable’s value is called the independent variable.

Train set cross-validation

Now I will train a machine learning model using the linear regression algorithm:

#Using Linear Regression Algorithm to the Training Set  
model = LinearRegression()  
model.fit(X_train, y_train)  
model.score(X_test, y_test)
0.7576397365092227
#Accuracy check of trainig data  
from sklearn.metrics import r2_score  
#Get R2 score  
model.score(X_train, y_train)
0.8580416257290754
#Accuracy of test data  
model.score(X_test, y_test)
0.7576397365092227
# Getting kfold values  
lg_scores = -1 * cross_val_score(model,   
                                 X_train,   
                                 y_train,   
                                 cv=cv,   
                                 scoring='neg_root_mean_squared_error')  
lg_scores
array([1.14085048, 1.91971311, 2.48657269, 2.37645538, 2.07356566,  
       1.35149057, 1.19949618, 1.82302535, 2.47195623, 1.92871335])
# Mean of the train kfold scores  
lg_score_train = np.mean(lg_scores)  
lg_score_train
1.8771839013752931

Prediction

Now we will perform prediction on the dataset using Logistic Regression.

# Predict the values on X_test_scaled dataset   
y_predicted = model.predict(X_test)
rg = r2_score(y_test,y_predicted)*100  
rg
75.76397365092227

2. Lasso Regression

Lasso regression algorithm is defined as a regularization algorithm that assists in the elimination of irrelevant parameters, thus helping in the concentration of selection and regularizes the models.

#Using Lasso Regression  
from sklearn import linear_model  
clf = linear_model.Lasso(alpha=0.1)
#looking for training data  
clf.fit(X_train,y_train)
Lasso(alpha=0.1)
#Accuracy check for training data  
clf.score(X_train,y_train)
0.8457860347437882
y_predicted1 = clf.predict(X_test)
#Accuracy check of test data  
lg = r2_score(y_test,y_predicted1)*100  
lg
78.86934068584178

Insight: -

cal_metric=pd.DataFrame([rg,lg],columns=["Student Grades"])  
cal_metric.index=['Linear Regression',  
                  'Lasso Regression']  

cal_metric

png

As we observe that the result of Lasso Regression shows well defined accuracy i.e. 78% approximately.

Step 4: Save Model

Goal:- In this step we are going to save our model in pickel format file.

import pickle  
pickle.dump(model , open('StudentGradesPrediction_LinearRegresssion.pkl', 'wb'))  
pickle.dump(clf , open('StudentGradesPrediction_LassoRegresssion.pkl', 'wb'))
import pickle  

def prediction(features):  

    pickled_model = pickle.load(open('StudentGradesPrediction_LinearRegresssion.pkl', 'rb'))  
    Stgrade = str(list(pickled_model.predict(features)))  

    return str(f'The Student Grade is {Stgrade}')

We can test our model by giving our own parameters or features to predict.

school = 1  
sex = 0            
age = 18           
famsize = 0        
Pstatus = 0      
Medu = 1          
Fedu = 1          
Mjob = 1          
Fjob = 1          
reason = 1          
guardian = 0        
traveltime = 2      
studytime = 1      
failures = 0      
schoolsup = 1     
famsup = 1         
paid= 1           
activities = 1    
nursery = 1       
higher= 1         
internet = 0       
famrel= 1      
freetime = 1    
goout= 1          
Dalc= 1           
Walc= 1           
health= 1          
absences= 1        
G1= 7  
G2= 14
print(prediction([[school,sex,age,famsize,Pstatus,Medu,Fedu,Mjob,Fjob,reason,guardian,traveltime,studytime,failures,schoolsup,famsup,paid,activities,nursery,higher,internet,famrel,freetime,goout,Dalc,Walc,health,absences,G1,G2]]))
The Student Grade is [array([9.41601578])]

Conclusion:

After observing the problem statement we have build an efficient model to overcome it. The above model helps in predicting the grades of the student. The accuracy for the prediction is 78% approximately and it signifies the accurate prediction of the grade.

Checkout whole project codehere(github repo).

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